Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com
to find a customer- and markets-oriented brand of news coverage with a level of individualized service unique to the industry. A market participant told us he believes he has his own White House correspondent as Mace News provides breaking news and/or audio feeds, stories, savvy analysis, photos and headlines delivered how you want them. And more. And this is important because you won’t get it anywhere else. That’s MICRONEWS. We know how important to you are the short advisories on what’s coming up, whether briefings, statements, unexpected changes in schedules and calendars and anything else that piques our interest.
No matter the area being covered, the reporter is always only a telephone call or message away. We check with you frequently to see how we can improve. Have a question, need to be briefed via video or audio-only on a topic’s state of play, keep us on speed dial. See the list of interest areas we cover elsewhere
on this site.
—
You can have two weeks reduced price no-obligation trial for $199. No self-renewing contracts. Suspend, renew coverage at any time. Stay with a topic like trade while it’s hot and suspend coverage or switch coverage areas when it’s not. We serve customers one by one, 24/7.
—
Tony Mace was the top editorial executive for Market News
International for two decades.
Washington Bureau Chief Denny Gulino had the same title at Market News for 18 years.
Similar experience undergirds our service in Ottawa, London, Brussels and in Asia.
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Consensus outlook for Mace News
0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, June 18) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases May CPI.
Mace News median: total CPI +1.5% y/y (range: +1.4% to +1.6%) vs. Apr +1.4%; core CPI (ex-fresh food) +1.4% y/y (range: +1.4% to +1.5%) vs. Apr +1.4%; core-core CPI (ex-fresh food, energy) +1.9% y/y (range +1.7% to +2.0%) vs. Apr +1.9%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food, is expected to be little changed on the year in May, but is likely to remain below the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target for a fourth consecutive month.
Mirroring the trend seen in the Tokyo CPI released on May 29, consumer inflation continued to decelerate amid slower food price growth and the effects of government gasoline subsidies. In addition, the Tokyo government’s policy of waiving basic water service charges during the summer, starting in May, as well as reductions in early childcare costs, including nursery school fees, contributed to a further easing in inflation.
These measures have helped restrain inflationary pressures even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed up international oil and other commodity prices. The tensions have also weighed on the yen, raising import costs and creating upward pressure on domestic prices.
The core CPI is expected to be unchanged at a 1.4% rise on the year in May, while the overall CPI is forecast to rise 1.5% after increasing 1.4% in April. Core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, is also expected to remain unchanged, rising 1.9% from a year earlier in May.
Consensus outlook for Mace News
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, June 16) The Cabinet Office releases April machinery orders.
Mace News median: core orders -0.3% m/m (range: -2.0% to +6.5%) vs. Mar -9.4%; +9.9% y/y (range: +8.5% to +17.4%) vs. Mar +5.9%
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s core machinery orders, a key leading indicator of business investment in equipment and software, are expected to edge down on the month in April while extending their year-on-year gains to a fifth consecutive month as corporate appetite for capital spending remained resilient despite geopolitical uncertainty stemming from war in the Middle East.
Capital investment related to semiconductors is expected to remain active in April amid growing expectations of expanding demand for artificial intelligence technologies. Machine tool orders also posted a sharp increase during the month, providing support for core machinery orders.
Core machinery orders are seen falling 0.3% on the month in April after falling 9.4% a month earlier. The March decline partly reflected a payback from the 13.6% surge recorded in February, when one-off large-ticket deals boosted orders. In March, the Cabinet Office maintained its assessment that machinery orders are “showing signs of a pickup.”
On a year-over-year basis, core machinery orders are expected to rise 9.9% in April after increasing 5.9% in March. Orders rose 24.7% in February, 13.7% in January and 16.8% in December.
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, June 16) The Ministry of Finance releases May trade.
Mace News median: exports +14.8% y/y (range: +10.7% to +19.0%) vs. +14.8% in April; imports +12.5% y/y (range: +9.9% to +16.6%) vs. revised +9.8% in April from 9.7%; trade deficit ¥559.60 billion (range: a deficit of ¥660.00 billion to a deficit of ¥348.70 billion) vs. a revised ¥299.27 billion surplus in April from ¥301.90 billion; ¥662.47 deficit in May 2025
By Chikafumi Hodo
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Driven by increasing imports in the resource-poor country amid prolonged tensions in the Middle East, Japan’s trade balance is expected to fall into deficit for the first time in four months in May. Robust trade activity is expected to lift export values from a year earlier for the ninth consecutive month and import values for the fourth straight month.
Japanese exports are expected to rise for the ninth consecutive month on the year in May, increasing 14.8% after the same gain in the previous month. The April value reached the second-highest level on record at ¥10.5 trillion, led by double-digit percentage gains in shipments of computer chips, non-ferrous metals and engines. Despite stiff U.S. trade tariffs, Japanese exports rose for the second straight month in April, up 9.5%, supported by shipments of computer chips, construction and mining equipment, and heavy electrical machinery. Exports to Europe and Asia have also been increasing.
As geopolitical uncertainty persists amid concerns over a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, resource-poor Japan has been scrambling to diversify its imports of natural resources away from the Middle East. Coupled with the ongoing weakness of the yen, import values are expected to rise 12.5% in May after a revised 9.8% increase in April from the initially +9.7%.
Coupled with the yen’s weakness despite Japanese authorities’ currency intervention efforts in May, elevated international prices of oil, metals and other natural resources have continued to push up import costs for Japan. As a result, Japan’s customs-cleared trade balance is expected to fall into deficit for the first time in four months in May, with the trade balance seen posting a deficit of 559.60 billion yen after a revised surplus of ¥299.27 billion in the previous month.
–ISM’s Spence: New Orders Up on Pent-Up Demand, Instead of Customers Stocking Up Before Iran War Causes Further Disruption–Spence: Employment in Contraction but Better in
By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Here are the key Japanese events for the coming week. Lukewarm growth has been lingering in Japan for the past
– After Rate Hike Odds Rose, Improved Prospect of Disinflation Causes Rethinking By Steven K. Beckner (MaceNews) – Over the course of Kevin Warsh’s first
Friday, May 29, 2026 0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, May 28) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases April jobs. Mace News median:
Friday, May 29, 2026 0830 JST (2330 GMT/1930 EDT Thursday, May 28) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases May Tokyo CPI.Mace News median:
Friday, May 29, 2026 0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Wednesday, May 28) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases April, and the outlook for
Friday, May 29, 2026 0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Thursday, May 28) The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry releases April retail sales. Mace News
–Some Economists Project Q2 GDP Dip as Effects of Mideast Conflict on Consumption, Capex to Become More Pronounced By Max Sato (MaceNews) – Japan’s government
Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com
to find a customer- and markets-oriented brand of news coverage with a level of individualized service unique to the industry. A market participant told us he believes he has his own White House correspondent as Mace News provides breaking news and/or audio feeds, stories, savvy analysis, photos and headlines delivered how you want them. And more. And this is important because you won’t get it anywhere else. That’s MICRONEWS. We know how important to you are the short advisories on what’s coming up, whether briefings, statements, unexpected changes in schedules and calendars and anything else that piques our interest.
No matter the area being covered, the reporter is always only a telephone call or message away. We check with you frequently to see how we can improve. Have a question, need to be briefed via video or audio-only on a topic’s state of play, keep us on speed dial. See the list of interest areas we cover elsewhere
on this site.
—
You can have two weeks reduced price no-obligation trial for $199. No self-renewing contracts. Suspend, renew coverage at any time. Stay with a topic like trade while its hot and suspend coverage or switch coverage areas when it’s not. We serve customers one by one 24/7.
—
Tony Mace was the top editorial executive for Market News International for two decades.
Washington Bureau Chief Denny Gulino had the same title at Market News for 18 years.
Similar experience undergirds our service in Ottawa, London, Brussels and in Asia.
