BofA Global Research Fund Manager Survey:  Bulls Turn into Bears In March As World Growth Outlook Sours and Inflation Expectations Rise.

–Cash Levels ‘Jump Sharply’ In March

–Geopolitical Conflict Top Tail Risk

by Vicki Schmelzer

NEW YORK (MaceNews) – Global fund managers turned from bullish to bearish in March, with shifting sentiment driven by a souring world growth outlook and rising inflation expectations, according to the latest Bof Global Fund Managers survey, released Tuesday.

Accordingly, cash levels “jumped sharply” on the month to 4.3%, versus 3.4% in February, “the biggest jump since March 2020,” the survey said. Cash levels saw a “record low” of 3.2% in January, the survey reminded.

In addition, cash allocation stood at a net 8% overweight in March, compared to a net 4% underweight in February and a net 13% underweight in January.

In March, a net 7% of those polled looked for stronger economic growth in the coming year, well down from a net 39% looking for strong growth in February and a net 38% with that view in January.

Nearly a year ago, back in April 2025, a net 82% of managers looked for economic weakness, the “most on record” (BoA Global 30-year history).

Inflation uncertainty took hold as well, with a net 45% of fund managers now looking for higher global inflation in the coming year.  In February, a net 9% expected higher global inflation and in January, a net 3% looked for lower inflation in the year ahead

In March, portfolio managers unwound some, but not all, of their riskier assets.

This month, a net 37% of portfolio managers were overweight global equities, down from a net 48% in February and January.

A net 36% of managers were underweight bonds, compared to a net 40% underweight in February and a net 35% underweight in January.

Allocation to real estate stood unchanged at a net 16% underweight in March and compared to a net 13% underweight in January.  

In March, commodities allocation rose to a net 34% overweight from a net 28% overweight in February and a net 26% overweight in January.

In terms of regional equity allocation, the U.S., Japan and emerging markets saw inflows, while other regions either saw outflows or were little changed.

Allocation to U.S. equities held at a 17% underweight this month, compared to a net 22% underweight in February and a net 3% underweight in January.

In March, a net 21% of those polled were overweight eurozone stocks, compared to a net 35% overweight in February and a net 25% overweight in January.

Allocation to global emerging markets (GEM) stood at a net 53% this month, up from a net 49% overweight in February and a net 40% overweight in January.

In March, allocation to Japanese equities increased to a net 14% overweight from a net 1% underweight in February, while UK allocation stood unchanged at a net 15% underweight.

In terms of the three biggest “tail risks” seem by managers, in March these were “Geopolitical conflict” (37%), “Inflation” (23%) and “Private Credit” (16%).

In February, the top “tail risks” were “AI bubble” (25% of those polled), “Inflation” (20%) and “Disorderly rise in bond yields” (17%).

When asked “the most likely source of a systemic credit event,” 63% of those polled said “private equity/private credit.” Private equity/credit has a top concern “for the 8^th month in a row,” the survey said.

In March, the three “most crowded” trades were seen as “Long Gold” (35% of those polled), “Long global semiconductors” (35%), and “Long Magnificent 7” (9%).

In February, the three “most crowded” trades were “long Gold” (50% of those polled), “Long Magnificent 7” (20%) and “Short U.S. dollar” (12%).

Note: the term “Magnificent Seven” was coined by Bank of America’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, referring to a basket of the seven major tech stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, Alphabet, Tesla and Meta.

Fund managers were asked the expected price of Brent crude oil by year-end, with 35% looking for Brent prices in the $70-$80 range, 26% eyeing a $60-70 range, $18% a $80-90 range, 8% a $90-$100 range, 4% looking for sub $60 per barrel and 3% looking for prices over $100 per barrel.

“The weighted average for oil expectations is $76/bbl by year end,” the survey noted.

An overall total of 210 panelists with $589bn in AUM participated in the BofA Global Research fund manager survey, taken March 6 to March 12, 2026. 

Contact this reporter: vicki@macenews.com