Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com
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Tony Mace was the top editorial executive for Market News
International for two decades.
Washington Bureau Chief Denny Gulino had the same title at Market News for 18 years.
Similar experience undergirds our service in Ottawa, London, Brussels and in Asia.
President
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Federal Reserve
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Reporter and expert on the currency market.
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By Denny Gulino
WASHINGTON (MaceNews) – For any reporter covering Alan Greenspan there was a reliable imperative, read the text of his latest speech very closely because there was likely a zinger in there, a sentence that he intended to be the quote of the day, whether “irrational exuberance” or the ‘winner-take-all economy.”
It was not for nothing he earned the monicker “The Maestro,” for not only the nuggets he inserted in his speeches but for his behind-the-scenes confidential briefings for chosen reporters that he intended to color coverage of the Fed. When one reporter violated the confidentiality, he was banned from Fed relations from then on. At the same time he was allergic to TV interviews.
His famously damp legal pads on which he wrote his speeches while soaking in the bathtub were a challenge for his staff. He thought the warm waters boosted his already considerable IQ.
He brought to his Fed leadership a reverence for data of which he was a voracious consumer – and also an originator, extracting insights from raw numbers and observations that became received wisdom. Computerization’s boost to heretofore undocumented productivity in his eyes, for instance, led the Fed to postpone rate hikes. Seeing the global reach of the housing boom added perspective to the era of low, low interest rates.
Having outgrown his early fascination with Ayn Rand’s Objectivism as part of her inner circle, she was nevertheless remained a friend, at his side when sworn in as CEA chair and until her death.
His father Herbert had been s stockbroker and consultancy grew to be son Alan’s profession, but not until after his passion for the clarinet and saxophone post Juillliard,. He was a good enough musician to rub shoulders with some jazz greats. It was in the Woody Herman band he played with Leonard Garment, to become President Nixon’s special counsel. After his Ph.D. from NYU and the establishment of Townsend-Greenspan & Co. he was to become chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Ford administration. His firm grounding in many boardrooms backgrounded his real-world grasp of the economy and how it actually worked.
Succeeding Paul Volcker, he quickly took the reins, steadying the markets as he affirmed the Fed’s role as a ‘source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system.” After the Twin Towers fell, he led the consensus to bring the fed funds rate down to 1%. His critics were legion but his admirers were greater still. When Saddam Hussein still ruled Iraq Greenspan feared he could close the Strait of Hormuz, wreaking chaos on the world economy. Presidents Reagan, H.W. Bush and Clinton kept him in his Fed post.
After being succeeded by Ben Bernanke he was sought after for his insights as head of Greenspan Associates LLC, summoned to testify on Capitol Hill and make notable appearances, even seeing the possibility of an oncoming recession at one point. He argued against the national vulnerability of the housing market, missing the part subprime mortgages were to play. Following his pessimism expressed on Feb 26, 2007, the DJIA the next day lost 3,3%. In another foreshadowing, he warned against cutting the H1-B visa program. and praised skilled immigration.
It was in congressional testimony he recognized the limits he had embraced of free market’s power of self correction and finally saw the value added of prudent regulation, conceding his worldview of many decades had been flawed. Evidence the economic world didn’t always work the way he thought it did, he said, left him “shocked.”
By Laurie Laird
LONDON (MaceNews) – UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned as leader of the Labour Party early on Monday, bringing an end to his turbulent two-year spell as prime minister.
A visibly-emotional Starmer acknowledged that he’d lost the confidence of his Labour Party colleagues and pledged his full support to his successor. He’ll remain in office while a new leader is selected, a process that could stretch into September.
“The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next election,” he told assembled media outside the black door of Number 10 Downing Street. “I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question, and I accept the answer in good grace.”
Starmer’s announcement comes a day before the 10-year anniversary of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, an event that has sparked unprecedented political instability. Starmer’s successor — who will ascend to the premiership as leader of the nation’s largest political party — will be the seventh prime minister since that landmark vote.
The outgoing Labour leader dragged his party toward the political centre, securing a landslide parliamentary victory in July of 2024, but Starmer’s personal approval ratings never matched the scale of that triumph. Numerous economic policy U-turns have rattled financial markets, while his appointment of Labour Party grandee Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States raised questions over his political judgement. Mandelson resigned that post after revelations of a close relationship with the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and is under criminal investigation over his conduct in office.
But the trigger for Monday’s announcement was the return to frontline politics of a high-profile regional official. Andy Burnham — outgoing mayor of the nation’s second biggest urban area — has made no secret of his intention to challenge Starmer as leader of the party. After winning a special election last week, Burnham took up his parliamentary seat on Monday afternoon. That ballot was triggered by the resignation of Labour member Josh Simons, who stepped aside to give Burnham an opportunity to run for a national seat, fulfilling a requirement for party leadership. Burnham won more than 50% of that local vote, roundly defeating a candidate from the far-right Reform party, which remains the most popular grouping in national polls.
Burnham has confirmed his intention to run for leadership, and claims to have gained the support of the 20% of Labour members of parliament needed to trigger a bid. Other serving MP’s have until July 9th to enter the contest, which could play out over several months. But would-be challenger Wes Streeting, a former health minister, immediately threw his weight behind Burnham, increasing the likelihood of Burnham running unopposed, potentially allowing him to move into 10 Downing Street before the summer recess begins in mid-July.
Investors have both publicly and privately expressed concerns that Burnham may be less committed to fiscal probity than the current government; he has recently disavowed dismissive comments over the importance of the bond markets. But he has assembled a market-friendly team of informal financial advisors, including Andy Haldane, a former chief economist at the Bank of England, and Richard Hughes, a veteran of the Office for Budget Responsibility, the UK fiscal watchdog. He has yet to give a steer on his choice for chancellor of the exchequer, the country’s top finance official, although Burnham allies told the Sunday Times that he is unlikely to retain the services of current chancellor Rachel Reeves. A former Bank of England staffer, Reeves is largely respected by fixed-income investors, but disappointed business leaders by increasing the employers’ payroll tax in the autumn of 2024.
UK markets were remarkably stoic following this latest bout of political instability. Sterling dipped modestly ahead of Starmer’s announcement, but stood 0.2% higher at $1.3255 by mid afternoon. Gilt yields went the other way, falling by five to six basis points across the curve. Despite that benign reaction, UK borrowing costs remain significantly higher than those in other Group of Seven nations, with 10-year yields hovering near 4.79% at mid afternoon on Monday, compared with 4.50% in the U.S. and 2.95% in Germany.
–June Tokyo CPI Inflation Seen Accelerating on Rising Costs for Plastics, Other Goods amid Mideast Materials Supply Squeeze but Still Below 2% BOJ Target
By Max Sato
(MaceNews) – Financial markets are expected to be volatile in the coming week after Iran announced on the weekend that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz again over Israel’s attacks on southern Lebanon. The blockade of the key export route for energy and commodities from the Mideast Gulf, if sustained, could aggravate material supply constraints in Japan, which have already dented industrial production and boosted producer prices.
The Tokyo consumer inflation data due Friday is forecast to pick up in June after cooling off in May in light of rising costs for producing plastics.
Market participants are also looking for any hints from Bank of Japan policymakers as to how soon they would have to follow up on last week’s rate hike.
At its June 15-16 meeting, the BOJ’s board decided in a majority vote to conduct its fifth interest rate hike since it launched the gradual process of unwinding excess monetary easing in March 2024. It also decided to continue reducing large-scale asset purchases at the current pace until the end of fiscal 2026 and suspend the tapering for fiscal 2027 (to March 2028) as it tries to strike a balance between recovering bond market functions and preventing a sharp rise in long-term interest rates, and thus borrowing costs for households and businesses.
In the past three years of normalization, the BOJ’s target for the overnight interest has been lifted to 1% from a range of -0.1% to zero that was in place until the bank ended its negative interest rate policy and switched the main tool back to changing interest rates from the yield curve control framework.
BOJ officials have a bitter memory of a failed attempt to fully normalize the bank’s super-low interest rate nearly 20 years ago. When the bank replaced quantitative easing (asset purchases) with interest rate levels (starting with zero) in March 2006, officials thought they could conduct four 25-baisis point rate hikes in about two years. Instead, an emerging U.S. housing debt crisis hampered the process after two hikes and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 triggered a global credit squeeze, pushing the BOJ into emergency monetary easing.
They were two steps away from raising the short-term interest rate to 1%, a level often estimated to be at the lower end of the bank’s policy interest that is neutral to economic activity. This time, BOJ officials have cleared the first major hurdle in policy normalization with five rate hikes in about two years.
It is a milestone for a central bank that has gently pushed the lever toward a world that comes with a more normal level of interest on loans and savings after having struggled for more than a decade to shift a deflationary economy toward new investment in capacity and financial wealth, wage hikes and price markups in tandem with a rise in costs. In light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the lingering Mideast conflict, BOJ policymakers are now concerned about elevated energy and import costs are leading to a widespread inflation in goods (and some services) beyond the bank’s 2% price stability target.
In ordinary times, which are becoming a rarity these days, keeping a measured pace of raising interest rates every six months or so seems to be a reasonable way toward lifting the policy rate more into a neutral zone while staving off an unwanted surge in inflation without hurting growth.
However, the clashes in the Middle East involving Iran and Israel are posing a greater threat to Japan than to its Group of Seven allies as it relies heavily on crude oil and other raw materials produced in the Gulf states. Supply constraints hurt economic growth but at the same time pushes up costs, both of which are already showing a decline in factory output and a surge in producer prices. The prolonged weakness of the yen has been pushing up import costs, making the situation worse.
At this critical time, the BOJ made it clear in its statement issued after the June 15-16 meeting that its board is more inclined to raise rates further to prevent the bank from falling behind the curve in controlling inflation that worrying about raising borrowing costs for the private sector and government.
Downside risks to a sharp slowdown in the economy have decreased compared to a while ago, thanks to energy subsidies and alternative sources of raw materials from the Middle East, the BOJ said, while there is a risk of underlying consumer inflation deviating upward above the bank’s target to guide inflation to around 2% in a sustained and stable manner.
Looking ahead, the bank said it “will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation” in response to developments in growth and inflation, noting that underlying consumer inflation is nearing the bank’s 2% price stability target and financial conditions are accommodative.
Nobuyasu Atago, a former BOJ official and chief economist at Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute, now predicts that the BOJ board is likely to follow up with another 25-basis point rate hike in October (three meetings away), rather than waiting until December, which was his original forecast before seeing the board’s decisions on the rate and asset purchases in June.
For Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, higher interest rates mean higher costs for issuing debt, a key policy tool that her government has been using to support economic growth. News reports have said she is not happy with interest rate hikes but unlike the late Shinzo Abe, who tried to reflate the economy under the slogan of unprecedented monetary easing, large-scale fiscal spending and pro-growth structural changes, Takaichi doesn’t seem to have a strong and persistent view on how the BOJ should conduct monetary policy.
What may be more concerning for Takaichi is the stubbornly weak yen that has eroded the purchasing power of Japanese households and businesses, which in turn could lead to lower voter support for the administration if the costs for daily necessities remain elevated.
Signs of a further increase in the BOJ policy rate alone are unlikely to entice foreign exchange traders to buy yen for the dollar in a sustained period, particularly when the Federal Reserve is inclined to raise rates to fight inflation. A series of yen-buying currency market intervention by the Ministry of Finance from late April to early May temporarily pushed the dollar ¥157 but the U.S. unit has recovered to a critical level of ¥161.96 in recent trading. If it breaches the level, it would hit the weakest point for the yen since December 1986, when the dollar was depreciating fast in the aftermath of the Plaza Accord of 1985 among five major economies to push for a weaker dollar as a means of slashing the ballooning U.S. current account deficit.
The Trump administration would welcome a further rate hike by the BOJ even though the direct impact of such action on the dollar-yen exchange rate may be limited.
Japanese news media reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared to have told his Japanese counterpart Satsuki Katayama during his Tokyo visit in May that the BOJ should raise interest rates further to tame inflationary fears that had led to a rise in long-term bond yield in Japan and spilled over to the U.S. bond market.
Government leaders have been careful about making comments on what the BOJ should do specifically but they have accepted the bank’s actions so far. Going forward, the two sides may have more diverse views on whether the overnight interest rate is in a neutral zone and whether raising rates would be a good policy option when consumer spending is sluggish amid elevated costs for daily necessities.
Tuesday, June 23
1400 JST (0500 GMT/0100 EDT Tuesday, June 23) The Bank of Japan releases its core inflation measures that are designed to remove the impact of institutional factors, such as subsidies and tax changes, from the government’s core CPI (excluding fresh food) and core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy).
Wednesday, June 24
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Wednesday, June 23) The Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from the June 15-16 meeting at which the nine-member board minus Governor Kazo Ueda decided in a 7 to 1 vote to raise the target for the overnight interest rate to 1% from 0.75% amid growing upside risks to inflation triggered by the Mideast conflict and as part of the process to unwind large-scale monetary easing that lasted for nearly a decade until March 2024. Ueda missed the meeting for medical treatment. He submitted his opinions in writing but did not vote.
The board also decided to maintain its June 2025 decision to reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds by about ¥200 billion a quarter so that the monthly purchase amount will fall to around ¥2.1 trillion in January-March 2027 from ¥2.7 trillion in April-June 2026 and ¥5.7 trillion in July 2024, just before the tapering began. As for fiscal 2027, the board decided to stop tapering by keep the scale of monthly JGB purchases at ¥2.0 trillion throughout the fiscal year ending in March 2028 after slightly trimming the amount to ¥2.0 trillion in April from ¥2.1 trillion the previous month.
Wednesday, June 24
1540 JST (0640 GMT/0240 EDT Wednesday, June 24) BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reads out a brief speech by Governo Ueda at an annual meeting of credit unions hosted by the National Association of Shinkin Banks. Ueda is hospitalized for about two weeks from June 9 to receive medical treatment for a liver cyst infection.
Thursday, June 25
1000 JST (0100 GMT Thursday, June 25/2100 EDT Wednesday, June 24) Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura, a former Sumitomo Mitsui financial group executive, speaks to business leaders in Hyogo Prefecture, western Japan. Tamura has been an advocate for raising interest rates at an early timing as a means of keeping inflation from becoming more widespread. He is one of the three members who called for a 25-basis point (0.25-percentage point) rate hike in April when the board decided in a 6 to 3 vote to leave the target for the overnight interest at 0.75%
Consumer inflation in Tokyo, a leading indicator of the national trend, is expected to pick up in June on surging costs for producing plastics amid shortages of naphtha and other materials from the Middle East. It would follow a sharp deceleration in May, when the city began a four-month program to wave its base water charges.
All three key CPI measures will remain below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target as revived fuel subsides have capped gasoline and diesel prices nationwide. In addition to city water subsides, families in the Tokyo metropolitan area also benefit from free daycare services.
The core measure (excluding fresh food) is forecast to show a 1.6% rise on year after the annual rate slowed further to 1.3% in May from 1.5% in April, both the lowest since 0.8% in March 2022. The core rate hit a recent peak at 3.6% in May 2025 when processed food price hikes were sharp in the aftermath of domestic rice shortages.
The annual rate of the total CPI is also expected to rise to 1.7% after easing to 1.4% in May from 1.5% in April. The year-on-year increase in the core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) is seen climbing to 1.8% after slowing to 1.6% in May from 1.9% in the prior month.
For a clearer trend in consumer inflation, BOJ officials have stressed that they are focused more on the bank’s own core measures that exclude the effects of institutional factors (tax cuts/hikes, subsidies, etc.), which are pointing to an uptrend in underlying inflation above the bank’s 2% target.
Citing growing upside risks to inflation triggered by the Mideast conflict, the bank’s nine-member board minus Governor Kazuo Ueda decided to raise the target for the overnight interest rate to 1% from 0.75% in a 7 to 1 vote at its June 15-16 meeting, as largely expected. The fifth rate hike in the current cycle that began in March 2024 is part of the gradual process to unwind large-scale monetary easing.
Friday, June 26
TBA – The Cabinet Office releases the government’s monthly economic report for June. The meeting of economic ministers, which is also attended by the Bank of Japan governor (or his deputy), is usually held at around 1700 JST (0800 GMT/0400 EDT the same day) and the report is released 30 to 40 minutes later.
The government is expected to maintain its overall assessment by saying that the economy is “recovering at a moderate pace but the impact of the situation in the Middle East needs a close attention.” In its May report, the government stuck to its gradual economic recovery scenario after the January-March GDP data confirmed a steady recovery from a mild slump two quarters earlier but officials continued to warn about the drag from surging import costs and shortages of naphtha and other key materials.
–May Trade to Show Solid Exports, April Machinery Orders Seen Flat with Slight Dip, CPI Inflation Tame on Energy Subsidies, Free High School Education By
––Governor Ueda, 74, Hospitalized for Medical Treatment, Working Remotely but Will Not Vote Next Week–Board to Set Guideline for JGB purchases for Fiscal 2027; Focus
Wednesday, June 10, 2026 0850 JST (2350 GMT/1950 EDT Tuesday, June 9) The Bank of Japan releases the May corporate goods price index.Mace News median:
–Producer Inflation Set to Rise Further to 3-Year High amid Mideast Conflict, Q1 GDP to Be Revised Down Sharply on Weaker-Than-Expected Capex in MOF Data
— Rate Hike Sentiment Rising, But Most Inclined to Be Patient — Easing Bias Seems Increasingly Likely To Go By Steven K. Beckner (MaceNews) –
–ISM’s Miller: Fed Likely to Hold Interest Rates Steady in Near Term as Inflation Mainly Due to Fuel Prices, Exerting Some Downward Pressure on Growth
Friday, June 5, 20260830 JST (2350 GMT/1930 EDT Monday, May 11) The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases the April average household spending.Mace News
–ISM’s Spence: New Orders Up on Pent-Up Demand, Instead of Customers Stocking Up Before Iran War Causes Further Disruption–Spence: Employment in Contraction but Better in
Contact Mace News President
Tony Mace tony@macenews.com
to find a customer- and markets-oriented brand of news coverage with a level of individualized service unique to the industry. A market participant told us he believes he has his own White House correspondent as Mace News provides breaking news and/or audio feeds, stories, savvy analysis, photos and headlines delivered how you want them. And more. And this is important because you won’t get it anywhere else. That’s MICRONEWS. We know how important to you are the short advisories on what’s coming up, whether briefings, statements, unexpected changes in schedules and calendars and anything else that piques our interest.
No matter the area being covered, the reporter is always only a telephone call or message away. We check with you frequently to see how we can improve. Have a question, need to be briefed via video or audio-only on a topic’s state of play, keep us on speed dial. See the list of interest areas we cover elsewhere
on this site.
—
You can have two weeks reduced price no-obligation trial for $199. No self-renewing contracts. Suspend, renew coverage at any time. Stay with a topic like trade while its hot and suspend coverage or switch coverage areas when it’s not. We serve customers one by one 24/7.
—
Tony Mace was the top editorial executive for Market News International for two decades.
Washington Bureau Chief Denny Gulino had the same title at Market News for 18 years.
Similar experience undergirds our service in Ottawa, London, Brussels and in Asia.
